Morgans Financial: Federal Budget 2026-27

The 2026-27 Federal Budget is the most consequential Budget for investors in years, and not in a welcome way. Framed by the Iran war and global energy crisis, headline inflation is forecast to peak at 5% through the year to June 2026, with real GDP slowing to 1.75% in 2026-27. Against that backdrop, the government has used its post-election majority to pursue three themes: tax reform, national resilience, and spending discipline. The centrepiece is the long-threatened removal of the CGT discount and negative gearing concessions that successive governments chose to leave untouched. Whether you regard these as sacred cows or legitimate investment structures, the message from Canberra tonight is the same: the tab is being passed to existing investors to fund a future generation's entry into the housing market.

The centrepiece is a suite of tax reforms. From 1 July 2027, the 50% CGT discount will be replaced by cost base indexation and a 30% minimum tax on net capital gains for individuals, trusts and partnerships, with negative gearing on established residential properties restricted to new builds. Both measures include grandfathering provisions: CGT changes apply only to gains arising after 1 July 2027, and established properties held at 7:30pm, 12 May 2026, are fully grandfathered on negative gearing. On tax relief, the government announced a $250 Working Australians Tax Offset from 1 July 2027 and a $1,000 instant tax deduction for 6.2 million workers. Fiscal restraint is underpinned by a structural NDIS overhaul, capping scheme growth at 2% over the forward estimates and projecting $184.9bn in savings through to 2036-37. The $14.8bn Fuel Resilience package responds to the Iran war supply shock, while funding for renewable energy programs has been curtailed.

The grandfathering provisions limit the immediate damage but do not change the structural shift: from 1 July 2027, future gains on both investment property and shares face a higher tax burden than today. For investors sitting on large unrealised gains, the window to crystallise under the current regime closes 30 June 2027. Over the medium term, the removal of the CGT discount tilts the playing field away from capital growth strategies toward fully franked dividend income, while the wind-back of investor mortgage demand is a material negative for the major banks. The $31.5bn deficit, while improved on MYEFO, masks a structural shortfall that the government's own numbers show persisting until 2034-35. The RBA is left to carry the inflation fight alone, which means higher-for-longer rates remain the base case. In summary, this Budget reshapes the investment landscape in ways that will take time to fully price, but the direction is clear and the tab has been handed to existing investors.

Fiscal Position

The Budget delivers an underlying cash deficit of $28.3bn (1.0% of GDP) in 2025-26, an $8.5bn improvement on MYEFO, and forecasts a 2026-27 deficit of $31.5bn (1.0% of GDP), a further $2.8bn improvement, however the structural deficit is not projected to close until 2034-35. The economy's capacity to absorb higher interest repayments will be tested over the next few years if government revenue declines as economic conditions deteriorate, as expected.

Debt position expected to climb

Treasury's forecast for gross debt continues to rise in absolute terms, reaching $1.05 trillion at 30 June 2027 and peaking at 35.8% of GDP in 2028-29. However, Australia's fiscal position remains well below peers global peers, which reinforces the highest possible sovereign credit rating.

Budget assumptions and a cut expected to net overseas migration

Forecasts provide a low hurdle for the December MYEFO and next year's Budget. Key commodities are assumed to fall from elevated levels over the next four quarters to March 2027. Iron ore decline to US$60/tonne; metallurgical coal declines to US$140/tonne; thermal coal declines to US$70/tonne; and LNG declines to US$10/mmBtu. The AUD is expected to remain at 70c through the forecast period. The Budget expects net overseas migration to be 295,000 this year, after 305,000 last year. The government forecasts that it will fall to 245,000 in FY27, to 225,000 in the following years.

Australian Equities: Potential impacts, sectors and stocks

The largest direct implications relate to the key tax reforms which increase the cost of equity to individual investors, depending on their tax circumstances. Australian Equities notionally lose a degree of relative appeal.

Below we discuss a possible re-shaping of Growth vs Core/Value investing. That is, a likely uplift in the appeal of owning and holding larger, higher yielding stocks, relative to owning or trading stocks with higher capital growth potential. Unfortunately the changes compound pre-existing headwinds against Growth investing linked to higher inflation/ rates expectations and macro-economic volatility. Growth has been the dominant and highly successful market factor for the majority of the investing lifetimes of many Australian investors, so the changes come at the time of an already uncomfortable backdrop.

At the sector level we see nominal positives in select financials, residential development/ building materials, defence and energy security. Ultimately though we think market direction will be overwhelmed by the outlook for inflation, and its implications on interest rates, economic activity and earnings for domestic earners.

There are many unanswerable questions which will take time to play out, with both positive and negative offsets. To what extent does the reduced appeal of investment property offset the higher cost of equity now embedded in Australian shares? Does degradation of the Australian wealth effect show up in consumption? Do broken election promises slow investment and confidence? Does investment slow if corporates respond to investor demand for franked dividends relative to reinvestment? Is franking next?

Large and dynamic changes made at a challenging juncture place more importance on thorough reviews of Asset Allocation and Portfolio settings.

Higher Australian Cost of Equity

Higher taxation on current income (trust distributions) and capital realisation (switch to indexation) reduces the after-tax returns to many Australian equity investors. Any reduction in after-tax returns therefore increases the cost of equity as investors demand higher pre-tax returns to compensate. A higher cost of equity then notionally translates into a reduction in the appeal of equity investment relative to the risk-free rate or other alternatives for many investors. Importantly this Budget does not alter Australia’s dividend imputation/franking credits system, on which domestic investors heavily rely to improve after-tax returns.

Improved franked income appeal (Core/Value) relative to Growth

The upshot of the move to CGT indexation is that: the longer you've held the asset and the higher inflation has been, the more favourable indexation becomes with regard to after-tax returns, relative to the previous CGT discount. However the scenarios where investors are relatively worse off are ownership of moderate-hold, high-growth assets in a low-inflation environment, which is the profile that many Australian investors have experienced over the past decade. Income generating stocks with higher franking therefore look more appealing under Indexation, particularly relative to Growth stocks, given the imputation system remains unchanged. Large-cap stalwarts in this category include the Major Banks & Financials, Major Miners, Telcos and Supermarkets operators.

Notional potential segment and sector winners

Larger high-yielding income stocks
As discussed above (Banks, Financials, Major Miners, Defensives) possibly at the expense of low-yielding, premium valued higher growth stocks (IT/software, Fin-tech, Healthcare, Cyclical Industrials, Small-caps).

Specialist Financials
Tax changes should further improve the demand for specialist investment products, particularly for high-income earners, including Insurance Bonds and Annuities which bring after-tax benefits. Generation Development enjoys strong tailwinds as a leading product provider in this segment.

Residential construction
Notionally lower investor demand for existing properties, but a stronger pipeline of new supply spending notionally benefits residential builders and building materials (Stockland, Mirvac, James Hardie). Erosion in the Wealth effect is a potential negative offset.

Fuel Security
$14.8bn toward increasing the national fuel stockpile, plus the establishment of a government-owned fuel reserve with highlights strategic value embedded within incumbent refiners (Ampol* Viva Energy*).

Defence
Defence spending rising by $53bn over the next decade through the 2026 National Defence Strategy supports a multi-year structural tailwind for capability and industrial base investment (Austal*).

* Not formally covered

Our thoughts

Labor has used its post-election political capital to push reform on housing tax and the NDIS, areas successive governments judged too politically costly to touch. For investors with property, SMSFs, or trust structures, the direct cost is significant and, for many, substantial. Whether the reforms deliver as intended depends less on design and more on how much the government concedes through the Senate. Grandfathering, start dates, and thresholds are the questions that matter from here.

Even with the savings package, the overall fiscal trajectory remains expansionary. New spending on fuel security, infrastructure, and defence outweighs the structural restraint achieved through NDIS reform. With inflation expected to peak at 5.0% and the cash rate at 4.35%, the RBA is doing the work on demand management essentially alone. Sticky inflation becomes a base case rather than a tail risk, which matters for real returns and the cost of leveraged investing. For clients who built wealth through property and capital growth strategies over the past two decades, tonight's Budget changes the rules of the game.

For portfolios, this argues for a slight defensive bias and a tilt toward real assets. We prefer quality with pricing power (e.g. AMC, WOW, Morgans Core Portfolio holdings), names leveraged to rates and inflation (Insurers, floating rate credit), and infrastructure with regulated cash flows (TCL, GIFL). Among housing-exposed names, Stockland and Mirvac stand out as relative winners. We are cautious on the major banks, residential developers, and long-duration fixed income.

Morgans Financial Limited